Prime Yield has released the 2026 edition of its flagship report, “Keep an Eye on the NPL & REO Markets”, offering fresh insights into non-performing loan (NPL) markets across Southern Europe and Brazil.

This year’s edition highlights a realignment in market performance across the regions analyzed. In Southern Europe, Portugal, Spain, and Greece all recorded reductions in their NPL stock – both on a quarterly and year-on-year basis -, contrasting with a broader European trend, where NPL volumes rose again in Q3 2025.

NPL ratios also improved across these three countries. However, market dynamics differ significantly. Spain and Portugal experienced a slowdown in transaction activity compared to 2024, reflecting more mature markets and reduced primary activity. In contrast, Greece is expected to have seen a notable acceleration in transactions in 2025, driven by the completion of two of the largest deals under the HAPS state securitization program.

In Latin America, the scenario diverges. Brazil saw a sharp increase in default levels in 2025, impacting both the financial system and consumer credit. As a result, NPL portfolio sales expanded, supported by higher volumes of distressed assets and a broader range of sellers, even within the context of a new regulatory framework for banking provisioning.

Ask us for a copy of the full 2026 report to explore a comprehensive analysis of the NPL stock evolution, ratios, and transactions trends across all covered markets.

Read the full article here.

The research is also available here.

Portugal recorded the sharpest annual reduction in the Non-performing Loans (NPLs) stock in Europe, according to Prime Yield’s latest report ‘Investing in NPL in Iberia’. Between the second quarter of 2024 and the same period in 2025, the country reduced its stock-pile of bad debt by 15.7%, reaching a total of €4.3 billion, the lowest figure in the last decade.

Currently, NPLs represent 2.1% of active loans in the Portuguese financial system, a ratio which, although still slightly above the European average (1.8%), confirms the strong deleveraging of the national sector. In 2015, non-performing loans accounted for 19.6% of the total and amounted to around €41.0 billion, i.e. almost ten times more than the current volume.

According to data from the European Banking Authority (EBA), Portugal now holds only 1% of Europe’s total NPLs, ranking among the countries with the lowest stock of this type of credit.

“The reduction in bad debt in Portugal and also in Spain reflects the dual circumstances of tighter restrictions on lending following the financial crisis and the strong momentum in the sale of NPL portfolios in recent years. We are currently dealing with two mature markets in terms of NPL sales, whose financial systems have deleveraged heavily in recent years, so naturally, transactions involving this type of investment asset tend to be at levels far removed from other years,” comments Francisco Virgolino, Managing Director of Prime Yield.

After a 2024 marked by an unprecedented transaction – the sale of the Cascais Project portfolio, worth €4.2 billion – the Portuguese NPL market is showing signs of normalisation this year. By September 2025, transactions totaled around €1.4 billion, already exceeding the turnover for 2024, which, excluding Projeto Cascais, amounted to €1.1 billion.

Prime Yield anticipates that the final figure for 2025 could be even higher, as several transactions are still ongoing.

Prime Yield’s study points to a new phase in the Iberian NPL market. Portugal and Spain are now at different stages of maturity – with the former stabilizing activity and the latter experiencing a more pronounced downturn.
‘Looking ahead, despite the decline in NPL sales activity in the Iberian Peninsula in 2025, both Spain and Portugal continue to stand out as relevant investment markets, leading to more selective strategies on the part of investors. However, strong interest in high-yield assets suggests that specialist investors remain active,’ concludes Francisco Virgolino.

WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS MARKET?

ASK US FOR A COPY OF “INVESTING IN NPL IN IBERIA 2025”.

The report was echoed in the Portuguese press:
Read the article published in Vida Imobiliária here
Read the article published in Jornal Construir here
Read the article published in Diário Imobiliário here
Read the article published in Idealista here

Regarding the Portuguese property market, Prime Yield highlights the positive outlook for commercial property investment this year. It is estimated that activity will at least maintain the level recorded in 2024, amounting to around €2.4 billion, and potentially exceed this figure by 10-15%. It should be noted that property investment recovered by around 40% in 2024, with a significant contribution from the final quarter of the year. This quarter accounted for nearly half of the annual activity and signalled the resumption of large transactions, particularly in the retail sector. This year should see a continuation of this trend, with more favourable macroeconomic conditions and increased global liquidity providing further benefits.

Francisco Virgolino, Prime Yield’s managing director, explains that “Portugal occupies a strong position on the global property investment map. ‘We are undoubtedly on investors’ radars thanks to our high-quality properties and strong performance indicators in terms of occupancy, vacancy rates and rents across several segments.’ The downturn in 2023 was the result of adverse global macroeconomic conditions characterized by inflationary pressure and a sharp rise in interest rates. These factors impacted investors’ liquidity, leverage capacity and confidence. Last year, as this situation improved, activity picked up. With solid fundamentals intact, Portugal recovered in a trajectory common to many other European markets”.

Virgolino added: “Interest rates and inflation are expected to continue the path recorded in 2024. Alongside the positive performance of the Portuguese economy compared to the Eurozone, the holding of elections, and the strength of the labour market, we are optimistic about a continued positive trajectory of property investment.”

In terms of occupational activity, expectations are also positive, including for the office market. “This market began the year in decline after achieving record levels in 2024. Last year, office take-up in Lisbon and Porto reached exceptionally high levels, driven by large scale operations. A slowdown was expected this year, and this is likely to be further aggravated by political uncertainty in the first half of the year, causing companies to postpone decisions. However, with the recent elections and the favourable macroeconomic framework, office occupancy should pick up again. In the other segments, demand is expected to increase, but a lack of supply is still an issue, keeping prices and rents on an upward trend, especially in the housing market,” concludes Francisco Virgolino.

If you want to access to the main findings of the “Investment Guide for Property in Iberia 2025”, be sure to contact us.

Read the article published in Vida Imobiliária here.
Read the article published in Jornal Construir here
Read the article published in Diário Imobiliário here
Read the article published in Idealista here
Read the article published in Magazine Imobiliário here

In an article that echoes the conclusions of our study ‘Investment Guide for Property in Iberia 2025’, El Inmobiliario Mes a Mes notes that the property market in Portugal and Spain ended last year with a performance that confirms its position as a safe haven and strategic destination for investors. Overall, the two countries attracted €16.4 billion in property investment in 2024, marking a significant recovery compared to 2023.

Be sure to read this article from the Spanish press to learn more about the main findings of our latest research on the Iberian market and which emphasises that not only did the Iberian market withstand the global uncertainty, it also emerged stronger.

We invite you to read the full article and to contact us to access this research.

Prime Yield has just released the 2025 edition of ‘Keep an Eye on the NPL&REO Markets’, the annual report that analyses the dynamics of NPL transactions, as well as the KPIs of this sector, in Brazil, Greece, Portugal and Spain.

Among the main conclusions of the new edition is the fact that the European markets covered by Prime Yield in terms of NPL dynamics recorded different performances in 2024, both in terms of transactions and the actual reduction of this type of credit in their financial system.

On the one hand, Portugal and Spain, where the stock of non-performing loans decreased, contrary to the dominant trend in Europe. In these two countries, the sale of distressed debt portfolios exhibited improved dynamics in 2024, fuelled by secondary market activity and corporate transactions.

Greece, on the other hand, saw its NPL stock grow for the first time in years, despite remaining at low levels and still sharply below the critical years of what was once Europe’s most worrying market. Despite the trend recorded in the defaulted credit pile stock, the sale of such portfolios slowed down compared to previous years. This is not surprising, given the country’s strong deleveraging process and the consolidation of HAPS, which will have entered its final phase after five years in force.

In Latin America, Brazil also saw an increase in NPL stock, albeit at a much slower pace than in the last two years, although this did not translate into a substantial increase of transactions. In any case, activity is robust and more diversified, but reflecting the conditions of a market that has yet to scale up as it is at a very different stage of maturity from Southern Europe.

Contact us for a copy of the study.

Speaking to Open Hub News EU, Francisco Virgolino, Managing Director of Prime Yield, explains that the secondary market is going to be one of the main drivers of NPL transactions in Iberia over 2025.

The challenges faced by this sector in both Southern Europe and Brazil set the tone for this talk, in which Francisco also discusses how Prime Yield addresses this market through its consultancy and valuation services specializing in NPL & REO.

Read the full article here.

Prime Yield’s research is a reference when it comes to the NPL market in Spain. A recent article in El Confidencial about European regulations on NPLs highlights the data released in the company’ Spring research ‘Keep an Eye on the NPL & REO Markets’, which focuses on Spain and the other countries where we provide specialised services for this market.

Access the article in El Confidencial, which echoes our most recent data.

Prime Yield’s report “Investing in NPL in Iberia-2023” is one of the three finalists as “Research Report of the Year” at the Iberian Property Investment Awards 2024. We’ve launched the first edition of this annual study in 2018 and, since then, have been providing an updated and innovative picture of the non-performing loans (NPL) as an investment class. The twist of the research is presenting an estimate on the transactional activity of NPL portfolios in both Portugal and Spain, at the same time providing an informed insight on the main challenges facing such markets. The report also summarizes and analyses the main indicators about NPL stock and ratios in the Iberian countries, providing, in addition, an outlook on the latest economic and real estate developments in each market. It is focused on Iberia, but also puts the Iberian market in a European context in terms of economic outlook, NPL stocks and ratios, and NPL transactional activity and emerging challenges.

The winner will be unveiled tomorrow, 25th June, in a ceremony hosted by Iberian Property in Madrid. This is the second edition of these prestigious awards, which will recognise and reward the most outstanding players and projects in the real estate investment sector in Spain and Portugal throughout 2023.

Read the full article of Iberian Property about this nomination, here.